By Peeter Võsu, chairman European Christian Political Movement.

However, we should also ask questions. Are the revolutions in these countries spontaneous or organized? If organized, then who is behind them? Is it likely that democratic forces will really prevail?

From recent history we have no good examples about changes to democracy in the region. The revolution in Iran in 1979 against the pro-Western dictatorship ended in an Islamic Republic with even less freedom. Democratic elections in Gaza ended with the terrorist organization Hamas in power in 2006.

Shortly after the revolt in Tunisia, Mohammed El Baradei called Egyptians to rise up for change. El Baradei has returned to politics after serving as a head of the UN International Energy Agency for 12 years. He has the support from the Islamic movement the Muslim Brotherhood who might see this as their chance to come to power.

Muslim Brotherhood, who wanted to establish a fundamentalist state, was founded in 1928, but was banned as a political group after the assassination of Prime Minister Mahmoud Al-Nuqrashi Pasha in 1948 and another attempt to assassinate Abdul Nasser in 1954. In 2005, the members of the group won 88 seats in the Parliament as independent candidates indicative of their high popularity. The Mubarak regime saw this as a threat to his government and they let no members of the Muslim Brotherhood enter Parliament in 2010.

The Muslim Brotherhood has called the people to support Mohammed El Baradei as “a donkey of the revolution” whom they can use to overthrow the previous regime and then push away in order to create an Islamic State, based on Sharia Law. The Muslim Brotherhood had a slogan: “Our Mission: World Domination” that was changed after 9/11 (2001). The current leader Muhammad Badi said in his speech in Sept 2010: “The improvement and change that the Muslim nation seeks can only be attained through jihad and sacrifice and by raising a jihadi generation that pursues death, just as the enemy pursues life” (JCPA, Feb 2, 2011. Until now, the Muslim Brotherhood has been keeping a low profile in Egypt, the question is whether this is strategy or do they really support more democracy and freedom?

Behind the revolts in the Middle East are different groups with strong ties to the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood. In spite of the fact that the young people in the streets fight for a better life and a more democratic society, the Islamic groups may be the strongest and most organized ones in all of these countries. The outcome of the struggle may be the opposite of the expectations for a better and freer society.

The Muslim Brotherhood has declared it would change the peace treaty between Egypt and Israel. The same message has also come from Mohammed El Baradei. The Mubarak government was undemocratic, but has kept cold peace with Israel for 30 years. There is a similar peace treaty between Israel and Jordan. The change of the situation may lead to another attempt by the surrounding Arab countries to wipe Israel off the map as it happened in 1967 (The Six-Day-War) and 1973 (The Yom Kippur War). Islamic fundamentalists are unhappy that Egypt, as a regional power, has sided with Israel for the last 30 years.

The situation in the Middle East is a dilemma for the Western societies. The autocratic rulers in the region, like Mubarak in Egypt and Abdullah in Saudi Arabia, have been the best allies of the West. Although siding with Western interests in foreign affairs, these regimes fueled discontent in their own countries by their very corrupt and mostly inefficient rule concerning domestic affairs. The most likely alternative to the autocratic presidents might be Islamic fundamentalist governments that are far worse for the region and for the whole world.

We are used to thinking in the West that democracy is the answer to the problems in all societies. Is it really? Maybe we fail to see that democracy has worked for us because of our Christian roots. Without the foundation of certain values, the effect of democracy may be very different. Throughout the world you can see a clear link between free democratic states and Christian roots. Democracy still has a long road ahead in many societies that have different religious or ideological roots…